Key facts
- Brazil's presidential runoff is set for October 25.
- Senator Flavio Bolsonaro won 47% of the first-round vote, with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva securing 45%.
- US access to Brazil's critical minerals is a key point of contention in trade negotiations.
- Lula prioritizes multilateralism and ties with the Global South, including BRICS.
- Bolsonaro has a friendly relationship with the Trump administration.
Brazil's upcoming presidential runoff election on October 25 presents two distinct paths for the country's relationship with the United States, with significant implications for trade, mineral development, and industrial policy. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who secured 47% of the first-round vote, and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, with 45%, offer contrasting visions for navigating global economic tensions.
The stakes are high as Brazil's next leader will manage relations with its two largest trading partners, China and the US. A key focus of bilateral discussions is US access to Brazil's critical minerals and rare earths, a priority for Washington as it seeks to diversify supply chains away from China. A working group was established last month to advance negotiations on tariffs and a broader trade framework.
Experts suggest that if Bolsonaro wins, the US may be more inclined to negotiate directly with him, potentially delaying concessions to Lula. Lula's approach has emphasized Brazilian sovereignty and multilateralism, aligning with the Global South and the BRICS bloc. However, this strategy has yielded mixed results in negotiations with Washington, according to analysts.
If Lula is reelected, a Congress dominated by right-wing parties could exert pressure on him to meet US demands regarding natural resources and other issues. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, is seen as having a foreign policy more aligned with the US than traditionally seen in Brazil, potentially securing a more favorable negotiating environment. However, this could also lead to questions from his supporters about Brazil's autonomy and pressure to maintain an independent narrative.