Key facts
- Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg believes consumers will use AI agents like Muse for online shopping.
- Instinct, a startup focused on AI agents, is valued at $10 billion.
- MoffettNathanson analysts predict personal agents will not be major disruptors to e-commerce.
- The average consumer makes 47 payments per month, with only 11 potentially suitable for AI agent handling, according to MoffettNathanson.
- Meta plans to take a small fee from transactions facilitated by its Muse agent.
Meta's vision for its AI agent, Muse, centers on consumers delegating their online shopping to the service, with Meta aiming to profit from transaction fees. This concept has fueled significant investment in AI agent startups, with Instinct recently achieving a $10 billion valuation.
However, analysts at MoffettNathanson present a more cautious outlook, arguing that the actual utility and adoption of such agents may be limited. Their analysis suggests that out of an average consumer's 47 monthly payments, only about 11 are realistically candidates for AI agent handling. This excludes essential automated payments like bills, fuel purchases, and in-person retail transactions.
The limited number of potential agent-assisted transactions raises questions about the profitability of services like Muse or Instinct, especially if they rely on small per-transaction fees. The report implies that for these agents to become truly disruptive forces in e-commerce, widespread adoption would be necessary, which may be challenging given the constrained opportunities for their application. One theory suggests that Muse might evolve into an advertising platform for Meta, while another posits a future where users pay subscription fees for highly useful agents.