Key facts
- The US is considering a ban on diesel exports, which could impact UK supply.
- US diesel prices have reached record highs, exceeding £4.87 a gallon.
- UK diesel prices are predicted to rise significantly, potentially above £2 a litre.
- The US is the UK's largest single supplier of diesel, accounting for about a third of imports.
- The UK has 42 days' worth of emergency diesel import stocks as of July 2026.
The UK faces a potential diesel supply crisis and significant price increases if President Trump follows through on his administration's consideration of a ban on US diesel exports. Such a move, aimed at easing domestic prices ahead of US mid-term elections, could severely impact the UK, which relies heavily on the US for diesel imports.
US diesel prices have already reached record highs, exceeding £4.87 a gallon. Analysts and consultants have warned that a ban could push UK diesel prices above £2 a litre, with some predicting a surge above £3 a litre. This comes as the UK imports approximately 55% of its road diesel, and the US accounts for about a third of these imports. The UK's emergency diesel stocks were reported to be 42 days' worth in July 2026.
Robert Jenrick, Reform UK's Treasury spokesman, has reportedly warned US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that a ban would be a "big mistake" for the UK's economic security. However, European officials have largely downplayed the threat, with Czech trade minister Karel Havlíček suggesting the ban is unlikely to materialize due to its potential negative global market impacts. Analysts at Fitch noted that a 90-day ban would be "highly controversial" and might not gain approval from key energy officials. Oil and industry lobbyists are also expected to oppose the plan.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM, stated that a ban would have an "immediate effect" on the UK, impacting road haulage, agriculture, construction, and distribution sectors. He added that higher fuel costs would lead to increased inflation and a squeeze on incomes, with shortages becoming a possibility if the ban persisted. The Bank of England has previously linked rising inflation to higher fuel prices.