Key facts
- EU officials are confident U.S. President Donald Trump will drop his threat to ban diesel exports.
- Trump had previously endorsed blocking diesel exports amid rising prices, exacerbated by the war in Iran and Russian export restrictions.
- A 90-day ban would significantly impact the EU, with U.S. diesel accounting for over 50% of the EU's imports and 10% of its consumption.
- Reform UK’s Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick warned a ban would be a 'big mistake'.
- UK diesel prices could surpass £2 a litre, with potential for further surges.
- Fitch analysts believe a ban would be 'highly controversial' and may not gain approval.
European Union officials are cautiously optimistic that U.S. President Donald Trump will abandon his threat to temporarily ban diesel exports, a move that could have significantly impacted European energy markets. Irish Energy Minister Darragh O'Brien cited assurances from Trump administration officials that the ban was unlikely to proceed. "From the information that I was able to glean in D.C. last week, there doesn't seem to be a push to do that," O'Brien said, acknowledging that "any 90-day diesel ban would have distinct impact on us in the EU." He added that "when you talk to others around the administration as well, it doesn't look like that's something that would happen. I think there would be an impact for the United States themselves, the diesel ban, as well as the impact on other fuels." EU energy chief Dan Jørgensen echoed this sentiment, stating he was "happy" to see public comments by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who indicated that a diesel ban wouldn't be effective. Trump had earlier this month appeared to endorse the idea of temporarily blocking diesel exports amid rising prices, which have been exacerbated by the war in Iran and Russia's restrictions on its own exports following Ukrainian strikes on refineries. According to S&P Global Energy, U.S. diesel accounts for over 50 percent of the EU's diesel imports and 10 percent of its consumption. O'Brien stressed that the EU would not be complacent about the situation. Meanwhile, in the UK, concerns are mounting over potential price hikes and supply disruptions. Reform UK’s Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick reportedly wrote to U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent warning that a ban would be a “big mistake.” Analysts predict average diesel prices could surpass £2 a litre, with some suggesting a surge above £3 a litre. Fitch analysts noted that a 90-day ban would be “highly controversial” and may not gain approval from energy secretary Chris Wright or interior secretary Dough Burgum. The UK's reliance on diesel vehicles, with nearly 38% of cars on the road being diesel, and its significant imports from the U.S. make it particularly vulnerable. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM, warned of an "immediate effect" on sectors like road haulage, agriculture, construction, and distribution, leading to higher fuel costs, increased inflation, and a squeeze on incomes.