Key facts
- China's September LNG imports are estimated at 5.3 million tons, an 8% decrease from September 2025.
- Spot LNG prices topped $20 per million British thermal units in August and reached $26 per mmBtu in early September.
- Asian LNG inflows are forecast by Kpler to be the lowest in eight years for September.
- China is exploring options to reduce exposure to gas deliveries from the Persian Gulf.
- Qatar has extended its force majeure on LNG exports.
China's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are expected to fall for a second consecutive month in September, with an estimated 5.3 million tons arriving, according to data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. This figure represents an 8% decrease compared to September of the previous year, though it is a slight increase from August's estimated 5.2 million tons.
The decline is primarily driven by significantly higher spot market prices, which have more than doubled from a year ago. Prices surpassed $20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in August and reached $26 per mmBtu in early September. These elevated costs are discouraging purchases not only from China but also from other Asian energy importers, with Kpler forecasting total Asian inflows for September to be the lowest in eight years.
This trend marks a reversal from a buying spree that began in May, during which China increased its LNG purchases compared to the previous year. In response to the price surge and geopolitical concerns related to the Middle East, China's major state LNG importers are reportedly in discussions to secure long-term supplies from exporters that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz. While China does not intend to cancel existing contracts with Qatar, it is actively seeking to diversify its supply routes away from the Persian Gulf.
Qatar's recent extension of its force majeure on LNG exports is expected to keep prices elevated as demand increases with the onset of the Northern Hemisphere's heating season.