Key facts
- President Donald Trump cited a Census Bureau report claiming over 24,000 noncitizens voted in the 2020 election.
- Experts argue the report's methodology is flawed and could lead to false positives due to data matching errors.
- The Census Bureau report is described as a 'beginning analysis' and lacks transparency in its methodology.
- The alleged number of noncitizen voters is a small percentage of the total votes cast and would not have altered the 2020 election results.
- Trump reiterated his claim of winning the 2020 election and promoted the SAVE America Act.
President Donald Trump has amplified claims that thousands of noncitizens voted in the 2020 U.S. election, citing a preliminary report from the U.S. Census Bureau. However, experts widely dispute the report's findings and methodology, suggesting it likely produced false positives.
The report, described as a 'beginning analysis,' indicated that over 24,000 voters were linked to records suggesting noncitizen status at the time of the 2020 election. Experts like Mark Lindeman of Verified Voting and Barry Burden of the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Elections Research Center have criticized the report for its lack of rigor, transparency, and reliance on data from a private company, with Lindeman calling it a 'propaganda offering.'
Potential flaws in the methodology include errors in the private voter file, inaccuracies in federal records, and issues with the matching process itself, such as mislinking individuals with similar names or addresses, or failing to update citizenship status in databases. Justin Levitt, a law professor and former senior policy adviser for democracy and voting rights, noted these potential sources of error.
Even if the numbers were accurate, they would represent a minuscule fraction of the total votes cast in 2020 and would not have been sufficient to alter the election's outcome. David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, stated that the alleged noncitizen votes were smaller than the margins of victory in any state.
Trump used the report to reiterate his unsubstantiated claim that he won the 2020 election and to advocate for the SAVE America Act, which would mandate documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and impose nationwide voter ID requirements. The White House, through spokesperson Lauren Bis, affirmed Trump's assertion that non-citizens are voting, despite media and Democratic claims to the contrary.