Key facts
- Most Americans see no clear path for Republicans to regain an advantage in the upcoming election.
- Majorities of voters would not be more likely to vote Republican if Trump ended the Iran war, lowered gas prices by $1, or created 100,000 jobs.
- Democratic and undecided voters showed little change in their voting likelihood across different scenarios.
- Voters' perceptions of Trump's actions and the economy are largely considered fixed.
- A majority believe Iran's nuclear program is not permanently stopped and the country will continue to threaten neighbors.
- Many Americans feel the Iran war has not been worth the costs and has not advanced U.S. interests.
A new POLITICO poll indicates that Republicans are struggling to reverse their gloomy midterm prospects, with most Americans seeing no clear path for the party to regain an advantage as the election nears. Even Republican voters are reportedly skeptical that President Donald Trump could orchestrate a last-minute campaign shift.
Majorities of voters surveyed stated they would not be more likely to vote Republican even if Trump were to achieve significant political feats before November, such as announcing the end of the Iran war, reducing gasoline prices by $1 per gallon, or creating 100,000 new jobs. Democratic and undecided voters showed minimal movement in their voting intentions regardless of the scenario presented, suggesting their perceptions of Trump's actions and the economy are largely solidified.
According to the poll, conducted by PF Global, only about a quarter of Americans believe Trump could bring gas prices down by $1 a gallon by Election Day, end the war in Iran, or significantly lower grocery prices. Confidence is also low among Trump's own 2024 voters, with less than half believing he could achieve the $1 gas price reduction.
A Republican National Convention spokesperson criticized the poll's methodology, while White House spokesperson Davis Ingle highlighted Trump's strong connection with the MAGA movement. However, real-world obstacles persist; despite Trump's suggestions, U.S. military leaders have not initiated withdrawal from the Middle East, and energy experts warn that significant price drops at the pump would take months even if the war ended immediately.
Separately, a CBS News poll found that while Americans want the Iran war to end, many are unconvinced it has succeeded in advancing U.S. strategic or economic interests, with most suspecting Iran's nuclear program remains a threat and that the country will continue to menace its neighbors. Few feel the U.S. has achieved its aims in the conflict or made Iran's people safe and free.