Key facts
- US Representative Mike Lawler (R-NY) is considered the most vulnerable House Republican up for reelection.
- Democrats have outspent Republicans by approximately $1 million in Lawler's district.
- Texas Republicans sought to pick up five seats through redistricting, but three are now in play.
- US Representative Don Davis (D-NC) faces a district redrawn to favor Republicans.
- US Representative Jared Golden (D-ME) retired from a district Trump won by 9 points in 2024, creating a flip opportunity for Republicans.
- US Representative Max Miller (R-OH) faces domestic and child abuse allegations, making his once safe seat a toss-up.
- US Representative Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) has publicly broken with President Trump on immigration policy.
- US Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) may benefit from her bipartisan actions in a district Trump narrowly won.
- Democrats see an opening in Kentucky's 6th District, currently held by Republican Andy Barr, who is running for US Senate.
- California's top-two primary system will pit two Republican representatives, Ken Calvert and Young Kim, against each other for the same seat.
- US Representative Doris Matsui (D-CA) is facing Sacramento City Councilor Mai Vang, a democratic socialist, in a race that won't affect the House balance of power but could influence a future Democratic majority.
Republicans are defending a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives as the 2026 election cycle approaches, with Democrats needing to gain four seats to secure control. Historically, the party not holding the presidency gains seats in midterm elections, but Republican-led redistricting efforts in states like Texas could make the Democrats' path more challenging.
Several key races are being closely watched. In New York's 18th Congressional District, Republican Representative Mike Lawler, who represents a district won by Kamala Harris in 2024, is considered highly vulnerable. Democrats have outspent Republicans in this district, though Lawler maintains a significant cash advantage. Two late September polls show a tight race between Lawler and his opponent, combat veteran Cait Conley.
Texas Republicans' redistricting efforts have put three South Texas seats in play, including those held by Democratic Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, now drawn into districts President Donald Trump would have won by 10 percentage points. A third redrawn district is an open race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia.
In North Carolina, Democratic Representative Don Davis faces a district that was significantly altered to favor Republicans. Despite this, Davis has outraised his opponent, retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, and leads in a recent poll. Democrats have heavily outspent Republicans in this race.
The retirement of centrist Democrat Jared Golden in Maine's 2nd District, which Trump won by 9 points in 2024, presents a flip opportunity for Republicans. Former Governor Paul LePage is running against state Auditor Matt Dunlap, with LePage leading in fundraising but Dunlap showing a slim lead in recent polls.
Ohio's 7th District, once considered safe for Republicans, is now a toss-up. Representative Max Miller is facing domestic and child abuse allegations, prompting calls for his resignation from fellow Republican Senator Bernie Moreno. Democrats have invested heavily in flipping this seat.
In Iowa, Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a rematch against former state Representative Christina Bohannan. While fundraising is nearly identical, Bohannan has a cash advantage, and Democrats have outspent Republicans significantly.
Florida's 27th District sees Republican Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, who won a district Trump carried by nearly 15 points in 2024, facing criticism for her stance on immigration. While favored to win, her break with Trump on a key issue could impact Latino voters.
Washington's 3rd District features Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat who has worked with Republicans. She faces Republican Leader John Braun in a district Trump narrowly won. Gluesenkamp Perez has a fundraising advantage, but Republicans have outspent Democrats.
Democrats are also targeting Kentucky's 6th District, where incumbent Republican Andy Barr is running for the Senate. The Republican nominee is Ralph Alvarado, facing Democrat Zach Dembo, who leads in polls sponsored by Democrats. Trump won this district by 15 points in 2024.
California's unique top-two primary system will result in a general election contest between two Republican incumbents, Ken Calvert and Young Kim, for the same seat. Separately, Democratic Representative Doris Matsui faces democratic socialist Mai Vang, a race that will not alter the House's balance of power but could influence the composition of a future Democratic majority.