Key facts
- Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the US Senate.
- Democrats need to flip at least two seats in states carried by Donald Trump to win a majority.
- Key battleground states for Senate control include Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa.
- In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff faces Representative Mike Collins, with Ossoff holding a significant fundraising and polling lead.
- In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed is in a tight race against former Representative Mike Rogers.
- In New Hampshire, Representative Chris Pappas is running against former Senator John Sununu, with Pappas holding a consistent polling lead.
- In Maine, progressive Troy Jackson is challenging incumbent Senator Susan Collins, with Jackson currently leading in polls.
- In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper is favored in the open seat race against former RNC Chair Michael Whatley.
- In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown faces Senator Jon Husted in a costly race.
- In Alaska, incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan is in a ranked-choice voting contest against Representative Mary Peltola, with Peltola leading or tied in polls.
- In Iowa, Representative Ashley Hinson is running against state Representative Josh Turek in an open-seat contest.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the US Senate, but Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping the chamber in the upcoming November midterm elections, a prospect that was considered unlikely earlier in the political cycle. Control of the Senate will be decided by a handful of key races in states that Donald Trump carried in 2024.
In Georgia, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is facing Republican Representative Mike Collins. Ossoff has significantly outraised Collins and holds a double-digit lead in recent polls, despite Republicans outspending Democrats in the state.
Michigan presents a tight race where progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won the primary and is now up against former Republican Representative Mike Rogers. Rogers has distanced himself from Trump's tariffs, and both former Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama have campaigned with El-Sayed. Polls show El-Sayed leading by a narrow margin, though Republicans have spent more than double what Democrats have on the race.
New Hampshire features an open seat where Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is running against former Republican Senator John Sununu. Pappas has a fundraising and cash advantage, and has maintained a consistent polling lead of 5 to 8 points, despite higher Republican spending.
Maine, a state Trump won by nearly 7 points in 2024, is considered a top offensive opportunity for Democrats. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins has distanced herself from Trump. Her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, has taken the lead in recent polls, though Collins has a significant cash advantage and Republicans have heavily invested in the race. Democrats are also highlighting Collins' vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.
North Carolina, a state Trump won by 3 points, is seen as a concession by Republicans, with a major PAC diverting resources elsewhere. Democratic candidate Roy Cooper, the former governor, has outraised his Republican opponent, Michael Whatley, and has led in polls throughout September and October.
Ohio, another double-digit Trump state, is a critical battleground where Democrats need to win at least two such states to gain Senate control. The race between former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and incumbent Senator Jon Husted is one of the most expensive in the nation, with significant outside spending from both parties. Both candidates have led in recent polls.
Alaska, a state Trump won by 13 points, is also a potential pickup for Democrats. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces former Representative Mary Peltola in a ranked-choice voting system. Peltola has outraised Sullivan, but the incumbent has a cash advantage, and recent polls show Peltola leading or tied.
Iowa, another state Trump won by double digits, has Republicans on defense due to Trump's unpopularity and trade policies. In the open-seat contest, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Representative Josh Turek.