Key facts
- One Nation is averaging 28% support in Australian national opinion polls since June.
- At the 2025 federal election, One Nation had a primary vote of 6.4%.
- Recent polls show One Nation's primary vote dropping to 26% and leader Pauline Hanson's popularity to 25%.
- Voters supporting One Nation express significant pessimism about the next generation's future.
- Anxieties about immigration, inflation, and housing shortages are core to right-wing populist mobilization.
One Nation is experiencing a surge in national opinion polls, averaging 28% support since June, a significant increase from its 6.4% primary vote in the 2025 federal election. This rise positions the party to potentially replace the Nationals and hold the balance of power in state and federal parliaments.
However, the party's electoral success is not guaranteed due to Australia's seat-by-seat electoral system, which differs from national popularity contests. While polls suggest One Nation is challenging the Greens as the third-largest party, recent data indicates a potential tapering of its support. The latest Resolve poll shows One Nation's primary vote dropping to 26% and leader Pauline Hanson's popularity to 25%, with other polls also suggesting a stall in momentum.
Factors contributing to the surge in support for right-wing populist parties like One Nation include general pessimism about the world, voter anxieties about immigration, inflation, and housing shortages, and a perceived shift of the Coalition parties to the center. The party's core messages, including advocacy for a "monocultural" Australia and skepticism of diversity, have been highlighted in recent public addresses.