Key facts
- Edouard Philippe's campaign is facing internal doubts from allies regarding his strategy and chances of success.
- Philippe's poll numbers have stagnated, and he is in a close contest with Jean-Luc Mélenchon for a runoff spot.
- Marine Le Pen maintains a substantial lead in presidential election polls.
- Philippe's recent proposal to raise the retirement age to 65 received little attention.
- Some allies believe Philippe's centrist message lacks appeal after a decade of similar governance.
- Raphaël Glucksmann is trailing Philippe and Mélenchon in most surveys but recently won a center-left primary.
Edouard Philippe, a former center-right prime minister, is facing growing doubts from his allies about his ability to win the French presidential election and defeat far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Despite a recent increase in campaign tempo, Philippe's proposals have struggled to gain traction, leading some within his political circle to question his strategy and chances of success.
Philippe, who left his position as prime minister in 2020, has been planning his presidential bid for years. However, his campaign has been marked by a series of setbacks. A recent proposal to push back the retirement age to 65, intended as a pivotal moment, was largely overlooked, first delayed by President Emmanuel Macron's address on national security and then overshadowed by antisemitism allegations against National Rally leader Jordan Bardella. Philippe's 20-minute YouTube speech on the pension reform garnered only 70,000 views, a fraction of the 550,000 views Jean-Luc Mélenchon received for a two-hour livestreamed Q&A session.
Allies expressed frustration, with one campaign official noting the "unbelievable how nothing is making an impact." Philippe remains the best-placed mainstream candidate to challenge Le Pen, who leads significantly in polls. However, Philippe's own poll numbers have stagnated, and he is now in a close contest with far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon for a second-place finish, which would secure a spot in the runoff election. MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, who trails both, could see his campaign boosted after a recent victory in the center-left primary.
Philippe is grappling with several challenges, including uniting the center-right, overcoming voter fatigue with a decade of centrist rule, and struggling to connect with voters through his pragmatic, anti-populist pitch. Some insiders feel his message of economic realism and European ambition sounds too familiar after President Macron's tenure, likening the situation to "marriage after 10 years."
Despite these challenges, Philippe's camp believes the long-term battle will be won, with spokesperson Arnaud Péricard asserting that voters will understand the need for pension reform. However, a centrist senator noted a general lack of enthusiasm and engagement from the French public, stating, "There's no real movement anywhere... And the French aren't really listening."