Key facts
- Internal Republican polling in late September revealed competitive races in formerly safe GOP districts.
- Key seats in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Nevada, where Trump won by over 10 points in 2024, are now contested.
- GOP-held seats in Iowa, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin are also showing vulnerability.
- Republican campaign groups are reallocating funds from unwinnable races to defend other seats.
- GOP groups have abandoned a Senate seat in North Carolina and are defending a seat in South Carolina.
- National Republicans have given up on defending a House seat in Nebraska.
Top Republicans are expressing significant concern over internal polling data that suggests a challenging electoral landscape, with several traditionally safe seats now considered competitive. The polling, received in late September, has reportedly sparked a new level of panic within the party, indicating potential losses in areas that President Donald Trump previously won by substantial margins.
According to three individuals with direct knowledge of the matter, key districts in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Nevada, which Trump carried by more than 10 points in 2024, are now in play. Vulnerable seats in Iowa, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin are also highlighted, with some Republican incumbents facing serious races for the first time in years.