Key facts
- New Zealand's National Party support is at 25.9%, its lowest since 2020.
- The opposition Greens reached 14.8% support in the poll.
- Labour's support stands at 30.8%.
- The Opportunity Party polled 5.5%, potentially enabling parliamentary entry.
- A left-leaning coalition of Labour, Greens, Te Pati Maori, and Opportunity could form a government with 65 seats.
- A National-led bloc would have 59 seats in a coalition with ACT and NZ First.
New Zealand's ruling National Party has seen its support drop to 25.9%, the lowest since the 2020 election, according to an RNZ-Reid Research poll released Tuesday. The opposition Greens saw their support rise to 14.8%, while Labour's support declined to 30.8%. The Opportunity Party polled 5.5%, potentially crossing the threshold to enter parliament.
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 eligible voters between September 24 and October 1 with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, adds pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon ahead of the November 7 general election.
If the poll results were replicated on election day, neither Luxon's National-led bloc nor a potential Labour-Greens-Te Pati Maori grouping would secure a majority in the 120-seat parliament. This could place the Opportunity Party in a pivotal role in coalition negotiations, though Luxon has previously indicated the National Party is unlikely to work with them due to their tax policies.
Another poll by 1News Verian suggested that a left-leaning coalition comprising Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori, and the Opportunity Party could form a government with 65 seats, contrasting with the 59 seats projected for National, ACT, and NZ First.