Key facts
- Third-quarter GDP growth forecast at 4.4% year-on-year.
- Full-year growth target is 4.5%-5%.
- Exports surged in September, widening the trade surplus.
- Interest-rate cuts and mortgage subsidies were among recent stimulus measures.
- 550 billion yuan in debt quotas allocated to support infrastructure spending.
China's economic growth is expected to have picked up in the third quarter, reaching 4.4% year-on-year, according to a Reuters poll of 50 economists. This modest acceleration, driven by policy easing and strong exports, may still fall short of the government's full-year target of 4.5%-5%. The economy faces challenges from weak consumption, subdued private investment, and a prolonged property slump, although exports surged in September, widening the trade surplus. Beijing has implemented measures including interest-rate cuts and mortgage subsidies, and allocated 550 billion yuan in debt quotas to support infrastructure spending. Analysts anticipate GDP growth to reach 4.5% in the fourth quarter, but forecast a slowdown to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027.