Elderly outnumber children in nearly all Japan prefectures

Key facts

• Elderly residents now outnumber young children in almost every prefecture in Japan.
• In 2020, Japan recorded 840,832 births, the lowest since 1899.
• The population of persons aged 15-64 decreased by 1.1% since 1995, the first decline in this category.
• The proportion of old people (aged 65 or older) in Japan is 17.3% of the total population.
• Young people (aged less than 15) comprise 14.6% of Japan's population.

The demographic landscape of Japan is shifting dramatically, with elderly residents now outnumbering young children in nearly all of its prefectures. This trend underscores the nation's ongoing struggle with a graying population and declining birthrates.

According to the latest census data, the proportion of old people (aged 65 or older) in Japan accounts for 17.3% of the total population, numbering over 22 million. In contrast, young people under the age of 15 comprise only 14.6% of the population, totaling approximately 18.5 million. This marks the lowest figure for the youth demographic since census records began. Furthermore, the population of working-age individuals (15-64) has seen its first decline since census taking started, decreasing by 1.1% since 1995.

Government figures from October 1, 2021, indicated a population of 125,502,000, a decrease of 644,000 from the previous year. This decline was attributed to 609,000 more deaths than births and a net emigration of 35,000 people. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications noted that the population has decreased for 11 consecutive years, with all prefectures except Okinawa experiencing a decline. In 2020, Japan recorded 840,832 births, the lowest number since 1899, and by 2021, birthrates had fallen to approximately 805,000, a level not expected until 2028.

Experts view Japan as a critical case study for other nations facing similar demographic challenges, particularly concerning stringent immigration policies, a growing elderly population, and a shrinking labor market. The increasing number of retirees places pressure on the labor force to fund pensions, while the shift towards more labor-intensive service sectors for elder care strains public finances, exacerbating Japan's already high public debt.