Key facts
- IEA forecast fourth-quarter supply at 105 million bpd, 1.7 million bpd above forecast demand.
- The agency had previously forecast a fourth-quarter supply deficit.
- The IEA said 71 million barrels of emergency reserve oil would be available by end-February, including 15 million barrels of diesel.
- OPEC+ pumped 41.23 million bpd of crude in October, 97% of the pre-war February volume, OPEC said.
- The IEA forecast world oil demand falling 2.7 million bpd in 2026 to 102.3 million bpd, then rebounding 2 million bpd in 2027.
- The IEA projected 2027 global supply rising 6.6 million bpd to 108.1 million bpd, a surplus of about 3.8 million bpd.
The International Energy Agency said on November 13, 2026 that the world oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter, reversing its previous forecast of a fourth-quarter deficit. In its monthly report, the Paris-based agency, which advises industrialized countries, said supply will average 105 million barrels per day in the quarter, 1.7 million bpd higher than forecast demand.
"The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran," the agency said in the report. Brent crude reversed earlier gains after the report was released at 0900 GMT and was last down 0.1% at $95.71 a barrel.
The report follows signs that Gulf producers are recovering exports disrupted since the start of the war in late February, using workarounds such as dark crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers switch off tracking signals to evade attack. OPEC said on Wednesday that OPEC+ pumped 41.23 million bpd of crude in October, up about 2.04 million bpd from September and 97% of the pre-war February volume.
The IEA also gave more detail on the record release of emergency reserve oil pledged by its members in March, saying 71 million barrels would be made available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel to ease market tightness.
Other analysts have also forecast excess supply despite the lack of a resolution to the Iran war and continuing tanker attacks in the Gulf. JPMorgan forecast last week a global surplus of 1.4 million bpd in October. High oil prices have also curbed demand this year, helping tip the balance into a surplus.
The IEA forecast world oil demand falling by 2.7 million bpd in 2026 to 102.3 million bpd before rebounding by 2 million bpd in 2027, little changed from its previous forecasts. Production from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana will rise by 1.6 million bpd this year, it said.
For 2027, the IEA projected global supply rising by 6.6 million bpd to 108.1 million bpd, led by a further recovery in Gulf output, with a surplus of about 3.8 million bpd. That supply growth forecast is down 1.1 million bpd from last month's report, partly reflecting a downward revision from Iran, which the IEA said is subject to a US blockade that has curbed its oil exports.