Key facts
- JPMorgan said the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October.
- Goldman Sachs said it saw the oil market as balanced in both September and October and detected no global inventory declines over the last two months.
- Vortexa calculated oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz at 14 million barrels daily, including condensates, 86% of pre-war levels.
- The International Energy Agency estimated demand destruction this year at 2.6 million barrels daily and a supply recovery of 2.5 million barrels in September.
- The International Energy Agency warned that annual supply will decline by 5.8 million barrels daily to a total of 100.7 million barrels daily.
The global crude oil market is moving back toward oversupply, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan cited by Oilprice, as high prices destroy demand and fears of a deficit fade. JPMorgan said in a report that the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year's average of 1.3 million bpd.
Goldman Sachs said it saw the market as balanced in both September and October, amid reports of recovering oil exports out of the Persian Gulf and continued Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, five of them reported since Sunday. Goldman also said it did not detect any global oil inventory declines over the last two months, after a string of draws in previous months to keep a lid on fuel prices.
Futures and physical prices remained substantially higher than at the start of the year, and the war premium was still present, if weakened after the Democrats' sweeping victory in the U.S. midterm elections, according to the report.
Vortexa calculated oil flows out of Hormuz at 14 million barrels daily, including condensates, 86% of pre-war levels. The firm's analyst George Morris said October data shows Middle East seaborne oil exports had pulled back slightly from recent post-war highs on heightened risks in the strait.
In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency estimated oil demand destruction this year at 2.6 million barrels daily and a supply recovery of 2.5 million barrels in September. The agency warned that annually, supply will decline by 5.8 million barrels daily to a total of 100.7 million barrels daily.