Key facts
- The November Dubai contract traded about $2 a barrel below December, a contango structure, traders and brokers told Bloomberg.
- Gulf producers accelerated shuttle-shipping through Hormuz with ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, the report said.
- The Oman crude premium over Dubai fell to its lowest level since the end of July two weeks before November 3.
- Asian refiners, especially in India, bought more Middle Eastern cargoes over costlier Russian barrels with higher freight, the report said.
- Physical Middle East crude prices softened at the end of October as flows recovered toward pre-war levels in some days and weeks.
The Dubai crude benchmark's November contract traded at a discount of about $2 a barrel to the December contract at the start of the week of November 2, 2026, traders and brokers told Bloomberg on Tuesday. That structure, known as contango, in which later-dated contracts are priced above prompt ones, is the first sign since early July that current supply is abundant in the Middle East.
Physical flows have risen gradually over the past two months as Gulf producers accelerated shuttle-shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, using ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman once tankers cleared the chokepoint. In early July, a three-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire allowed millions of barrels to leave Hormuz unhindered.
Rising Middle East supply has weakened both Dubai and Murban prices in recent weeks, prompting more buying from Asian refiners, especially in India, which preferred additional Middle Eastern cargoes to costlier Russian barrels with higher freight costs. At the end of October, physical Middle East crude prices softened as flows from the region recovered and reached pre-war levels in some days and weeks, excluding Iran.
Two weeks before November 3, the premium of Oman crude over Dubai, a measure of Middle East physical market strength, fell to its lowest level since the end of July.