Key facts
- Russian crude exports are about 10% below pre-war levels.
- 61% of Russian crude exports now use the "shadow fleet".
- EU share of Russian crude imports fell from 48% to 4%.
- China, India, and Turkey's share of Russian crude imports rose from 29% to 77%.
- Russia is importing refined products due to Ukrainian strikes on its refineries.
According to UBS data published by ZeroHedge, Russian crude oil exports have remained remarkably resilient, standing only about 10% below pre-war levels. This resilience is attributed to Moscow's reconfiguration of its supply chain, with a significant shift in export destinations. The European Union's share of Russian crude imports has plummeted from 48% to 4%, while China, India, and Turkey have collectively increased their share from 29% to 77%. A substantial 61% of Russian crude is now transported via a "shadow fleet" of tankers operating outside Western financing and insurance systems, diminishing the effectiveness of sanctions and price caps. Additionally, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have forced the country to import refined products, contributing to elevated global gasoline prices.