Key facts
- Global commodity prices are projected to increase by 23% in 2026.
- Energy prices are expected to surge 32% in 2026.
- Food commodity prices are forecast to rise over 10% in 2026.
- Metals prices are projected to increase by 25% in 2026.
- Precious metals prices are expected to surge 40% in 2026.
- Fertilizer prices are forecast to rise 14% in 2026.
Global commodity prices are projected to surge 23% in 2026, driven by rising energy costs and disruptions stemming from the Middle East war and Black Sea grain shipments, the World Bank said on Wednesday. The bank anticipates a 7% easing in prices next year, but warns that continued shocks, including a severe El Niño, could keep food prices elevated. Global oil stocks have been depleted during the Middle East war, and global oil supply is expected to drop 5.2% in 2026, the biggest drop in four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, stated that higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth. The bank has provided $8.7 billion in low-cost loans and other aid to 25 countries affected by the Middle East war.