Key facts
- Russia's crude exports from western ports may fall by 100,000 to 200,000 bpd in November.
- Refiners are increasing diesel production under a new agreement with the US.
- Russian oil production has declined for ten consecutive months.
- September production was estimated at 8.64 million bpd, the lowest since mid-2020.
Russia's crude exports from its western ports could fall by as much as 200,000 barrels per day in November, according to preliminary loading schedules cited by Reuters. Two traders expect shipments from Baltic and Black Sea ports to decline by 100,000 to 200,000 bpd from October, including Kazakh crude transported via Russian pipelines. This potential reduction is linked to increased diesel production by Russian refiners following a new agreement with the United States, which also eased sanctions on Russian fuel exports. Moscow has issued new diesel export quotas after restricting shipments earlier this year to address domestic fuel shortages.
Despite the opportunity to increase diesel sales during a global fuel shortage, Russian refineries will require more crude to sustain higher processing rates. However, Russian oil production has been declining for months, with OPEC estimates placing September production at 8.64 million bpd, the lowest since mid-2020. Moscow also lowered its 2026 production forecast to a 17-year low. Seaborne crude exports were already struggling in October, averaging 3.59 million bpd in the four weeks through October 18, down 110,000 bpd from the previous period. Weekly exports fell to 3.13 million bpd, their lowest since March, following a temporary suspension of loading at Primorsk. Traders noted nearly three-week delays in crude loadings at Novorossiysk, with threats to shipping in the Black Sea further limiting exports. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries could also impact diesel production plans.