Key facts
- Trump told the Financial Times Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran, per OilPrice.com.
- A senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if its demands were met, OilPrice.com reported.
- The Revolutionary Guard said four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz, a claim that has not been independently confirmed.
- JPMorgan estimated the global oil surplus at 1.4 million bpd in October, up from 1.1 million in September, per OilPrice.com.
- The American Petroleum Institute reported a 5.27 million-barrel U.S. crude draw, against an expected build, OilPrice.com reported.
- Kpler's Michelle Brouhard noted the new Congress is not seated until January 3, per OilPrice.com.
Brent crude fell $3.04, or 2.9%, to $100.60 a barrel by 9:40 a.m. ET on Wednesday, its third straight loss, and WTI dropped $2.86, or 3%, to $93.23, according to OilPrice.com. Murban slipped $1.27 to $100.90. Both crude benchmarks had traded higher early before reversing, the report said.
The move extended a retreat that began when headlines pointed to momentum in Qatar-mediated U.S.-Iran talks. President Trump told the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran, saying: "We seem to be getting everything we want." Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that the two sides had "certainly made some progress." A senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its demands, including lifting oil sanctions and releasing frozen assets, the report said.
Escalation headlines did not hold prices up, per OilPrice.com. Trump told Fox News that a "heavy hit" on Iran was possible. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz, a claim the report said has not been independently confirmed. ING said markets have increasingly priced in further hostilities, according to the report.
Democrats won both houses of Congress in Tuesday's midterms, and analysts said the result could constrain war funding, the report said. Kpler's Michelle Brouhard noted that the new Congress is not seated until January 3, leaving the administration nearly two months to act.
Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva said profit-taking and reduced speculative long positions were justified after October's rally, according to the report. JPMorgan estimated the global oil market's surplus at 1.4 million bpd in October, up from 1.1 million in September. The bank said Middle East exports had recovered to about 20.7 million bpd from a March low of 9.8 million, and that demand had fallen 3.3 million bpd since the war began.
The selling overrode a 5.27 million-barrel U.S. crude draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute against an expected build, the report said. The EIA releases its official figures at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Earlier, Brent fell more than $6 to $100.80 before rebounding to about $104, OilPrice.com reported. Backwardation across benchmarks, where near-term prices sit above later ones, began to flatten, with the Dubai M1-M3 structure nearing zero, and a Gulf of Oman voyage to China was assessed at about $17 a barrel, down $6 from a month earlier. Global crude on water rose to 1.3 billion barrels by early November, up about 50 million barrels in two weeks, with 80% of the increase from Middle Eastern countries. OPEC+ held its December quotas at 31.01 million b/d, with output 4.21 million b/d below target. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel and its 2027 average to $88, the report said. Saudi Aramco reported adjusted third-quarter net profit of $31.2 billion, up 9% on the year and down almost 7% from the second quarter.