Key facts
- The front-month TTF price was 89.59 euros ($100.85) per MWh at 9 a.m. in Amsterdam on November 4, down 2%.
- The TTF price reached a four-year high of over 101.82 euros ($114) per MWh at the end of last week.
- QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG deliveries until at least the end of December 2026, leaving Qatari flows to Europe at a trickle.
- EU storage was 74.33% full as of November 3, per Gas Infrastructure Europe, below the five-year average of about 86%.
- The IEA said in a report on Tuesday that the global gas market could remain tight well into next year.
- Analysts said a re-escalation in Iran would push European prices back above 100 euros per MWh.
The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe's gas benchmark, fell 2% to 89.59 euros ($100.85) per megawatt-hour by 9 a.m. in Amsterdam on November 4, erasing earlier gains of about 1%. The move came as traders weighed whether the US will launch new strikes on Iran or pursue diplomacy, a question left open after President Donald Trump lost Republican control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections.
The benchmark had topped 100 euros per MWh at the end of last week for the first time since 2022, reaching a four-year high of over 101.82 euros ($114) per MWh. That earlier level came during the previous gas crisis, when Russia cut pipeline gas supply to most of its European customers after Putin invaded Ukraine.
Supply remains constrained. LNG flows from Qatar are barely a trickle, and QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure on deliveries until at least the end of December 2026. EU storage sites were 74.33% full as of November 3, per data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, well below the five-year average of about 86% for the time of year at the start of the heating season. Withdrawals have begun in most EU countries as temperatures drop.
Analysts said a re-escalation in Iran would push European prices back above 100 euros per MWh, as it would protract the Qatari force majeure into next year. The International Energy Agency said in a report on Tuesday that the global gas market could remain tight well into next year as Europe enters the heating season with the lowest levels of gas in storage in over a decade.