Key facts
- ANZ Bank raised its Brent Crude forecast by $10 to $105 per barrel by year-end.
- UBS raised its Brent Crude forecast to $110 per barrel for the end of 2026.
- Goldman Sachs sees Brent at $90 per barrel this year and $80 in 2027.
- Goldman Sachs estimates a $27 per barrel risk premium in Brent crude.
- Oil prices are on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain.
- Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are escalating.
Brent Crude oil prices are poised to finish the year around $105 per barrel, according to ANZ Bank, which increased its projection by $10. The bank based its forecast on the assumption that Middle East oil exports, shipping availability, and fuel supplies will remain restricted through December. ANZ strategists noted that the forecast does not depend on further geopolitical shocks but rather on the persistence of existing constraints. Any escalation in the Middle East would likely drive oil prices even higher, as the world has limited capacity to absorb new shocks after eight months of adapting to disrupted Middle Eastern supply. Earlier this week, UBS also revised its Brent Crude forecasts upward to $110 a barrel for the end of 2026, citing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, regional production, and global oil demand. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, anticipates Brent at $90 per barrel by the end of this year and an average of $80 in 2027, but acknowledges that risks are skewed to the upside. The bank estimates the current risk premium in oil at approximately $27 per barrel for Brent, suggesting that a sustainable diplomatic solution would be needed for this premium to quickly dissipate.