Key facts
- Asia's crude oil imports are projected to reach 23.96 million barrels per day in September.
- This marks the highest import volume since February, prior to the onset of the Iran war.
- Despite recovery, September imports are still approximately 13% lower than pre-war levels.
- China's August crude oil imports were 8.93 million bpd, a recovery but still below pre-war figures.
Asia's crude oil imports are expected to reach 23.96 million barrels per day in September, the highest volume since February when the Iran war began and disrupted supply from the Middle East. This figure represents an increase from August's 23.38 million bpd, according to data compiled by Kpler and cited by Reuters.
Despite the rebound from 10-year lows seen in April and May, when Asian refiners scrambled for alternative supplies due to constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz, overall imports still lag pre-war levels by approximately 13%. While volumes exiting the Strait of Hormuz have improved since the spring, they remain below earlier this year's figures, and the region continues to receive significantly less crude from the Middle East.
China, a major buyer, has seen some recovery in its crude imports, but they remain lower than in February. In August, China imported 8.93 million bpd, a 6.2% increase from July and a recovery from a decade-low in June, according to official customs data. However, these levels are still about 2 million bpd below those seen just before the conflict. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that if current high prices, with Brent crude around $100 per barrel, persist, China is unlikely to significantly increase its imports in the fourth quarter, projecting only a 600,000 bpd rise compared to the third quarter.