China oil imports to rise slightly if Brent stays near $100, Goldman says

China's crude oil imports are expected to see only a modest increase in the fourth quarter if Brent crude prices remain around $100 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank's analysis suggests that persistent high prices would likely prevent a significant rebound in China's oil purchases, thereby easing upward pressure on global crude benchmarks.

Official Chinese customs data showed that crude oil imports rose for the second consecutive month in August, reaching 8.93 million barrels per day (bpd). This represented a 6.2% increase from July and a recovery from the decade-low levels seen in June, which were attributed to high prices and constrained supply from the Middle East. The easing of export restrictions has also contributed to the recovery in imports.

However, Goldman Sachs indicated that China's crude oil imports are projected to rise by only about 600,000 bpd in the fourth quarter compared to the third. The bank's analysts noted that the primary upside risk to their crude price forecast remains a potential escalation of strikes on Middle Eastern production and export infrastructure, rather than a surge in Chinese imports.

Emma Li, Lead China Oil Market Analyst at Vortexa, commented that Chinese refiners, particularly state-owned companies, are focusing on cost control for crude deliveries amidst record-high freight rates. This strategy involves prioritizing shorter crude voyages to reduce delivered feedstock costs and allow for quicker responses to market changes, thereby protecting refining margins, especially with elevated Asian product cracks.