Key facts
- DemosAU/PremierNational poll put Labor's primary vote at 18%, down seven points, behind the Coalition's 33% and One Nation's 21%.
- The Coalition led Labor 56-44 on a two-party preferred basis, compared with 52-48 in September.
- Premier Ben Carroll declined to say whether he was worried about the poll at a November 9 press conference.
- Carroll announced $204 million for a youth rehabilitation detention program and $70 million to recruit 200 police reservists.
- Opposition leader Jess Wilson pledged Aidan's Law, and Carroll matched the commitment.
A DemosAU/PremierNational poll first published by the Herald Sun on November 9 put Victorian Labor's primary vote at 18%, down seven points, behind the Coalition on 33% and One Nation on 21%. The Greens rose three points to 17%. On a two-party preferred basis the Coalition led Labor 56-44, compared with 52-48 in September.
DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said that if replicated on election night many contests would be between the Liberals or Nationals and One Nation, producing a clear Coalition majority. He said he had checked the result repeatedly and stood by it. The poll had 1,562 respondents, an effective sample of 818 and a margin of error of 3.4%.
At a press conference in South Melbourne on November 9, Premier Ben Carroll repeatedly declined to say whether he was worried about the poll, saying he was focused on fighting for working people ahead of the November 28 ballot. He warned that a Liberal-One Nation government would shrink the economy and cause a recession.
Labor MPs told Guardian Australia, on condition of anonymity, that the result had caused serious concern in the caucus, though some were skeptical of the 18% figure. Campaign headquarters was treating the result as an outlier and pointing to other polls showing the primary vote in the 20s. One MP called the campaign an epic fail; another described the focus on crime as a bad strategy.
Carroll announced a $204 million plan on November 8 to allow judges to sentence low- and mid-level youth offenders to a rehabilitation detention program, and $70 million on November 9 to recruit 200 police reservists. Opposition leader Jess Wilson said her party would introduce Aidan's Law to toughen sentencing for attacks on people who intervene to protect others, and Carroll matched the commitment. The law is named after Aidan Becker, 22, who was fatally stabbed at Mernda station after stepping in to protect a 14-year-old during an alleged robbery.