Key facts
- National rose one point to 30% and Labour gained two points to 29% in the final 1News Verian poll.
- ACT and NZ First, National's coalition partners, each fell two points to 10% and 8%.
- On the poll's figures the right bloc would hold 58 seats, short of a majority without Opportunity's seven.
- The left bloc would hold 56 or 60 seats depending on how the Māori seats are calculated, also short.
- Preferred prime minister: Christopher Luxon down one point to 23%, Chris Hipkins up one point to 19%.
- Undecided voters fell two points to 9%, with more than a million people having already voted.
New Zealand's ruling National Party and the centre-left opposition Labour Party were neck-and-neck in the final opinion poll before Saturday's general election, according to the 1News Verian survey released on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The poll put National at 30%, up one point, narrowly ahead of Labour on 29%, up two points. The Greens rose one point to 16%. ACT and NZ First, currently in coalition with National, each fell two points to 10% and 8% respectively. The centrist Opportunity party was unchanged at 6%, and Te Pāti Māori was up 0.3 points to 0.4%.
On those figures, neither a right bloc of National, ACT and NZ First nor a left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have a majority, leaving Opportunity's support needed to form a government. RNZ reported the right bloc would hold 58 seats and the left bloc 56 or 60, depending on how the Māori seats are calculated, with Opportunity holding seven seats.
New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional system, which tends to favour coalition governments. RNZ reported that between October 29 and November 2, 2026, 1,006 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone and online, with a maximum sampling error of about plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
National leader Christopher Luxon said the only poll that mattered was on Saturday. Labour leader Chris Hipkins said his party had developed momentum and that it would be a close election. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said more support would give the party more leverage in coalition talks.