Key facts
- US officials claim high energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but data suggests lower traffic.
- President Trump stated the strait is open and oil is exiting.
- TankerTrackers.com reported only 5 million b/d departing the US Navy blockade line.
- Vortexa projects Hormuz tanker flows at approximately 941,400 b/d for August 14-21.
- Most energy exports from the Mideast Gulf are occurring via UAE and Oman's eastern ports.
- Satellite and vessel tracking data do not fully corroborate US officials' claims.
US officials are asserting that a high volume of energy tankers are successfully exiting the Strait of Hormuz through US-assisted transits, a claim that is being disputed by independent vessel tracking and satellite information. President Trump stated on August 19 that the strait is open and a significant amount of oil is flowing out. However, data from TankerTrackers.com on August 20 indicated only 5 million barrels per day were departing the US Navy blockade line, contrasting with US officials' claims of 10 million b/d. The US has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports outside the Strait of Hormuz, leading to the possibility that TankerTrackers.com's figure includes loadings from UAE and Oman's eastern ports within the Gulf of Oman, beyond the strait itself.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright had previously claimed an average of 9 million b/d exited the Strait of Hormuz, a figure significantly higher than available information suggests. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated on August 20 that the US controls the strait and energy is successfully exiting via the southern lane. Despite these assertions, available vessel tracking and satellite data do not corroborate the US officials' claims about the volume of tankers transiting the US-supported southern lane.
While some tanker traffic is occurring with automatic identification systems turned off, making them undetectable by conventional tracking, satellite imagery confirms these transits are visible on both the US-supported southern lane and the northern Iranian-controlled lane. Data from maritime security firm Windward shows these observable flows are substantially lower than pre-war levels, and vessels in the southern lane have faced attacks from Iranian forces. Projections from Vortexa indicate tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz itself are expected to be around 941,400 b/d between August 14-21, primarily comprising Iraqi and Saudi shipments. Most energy leaving the Mideast Gulf is currently transiting via the UAE and Oman's eastern ports. Vortexa estimates exports via Fujairah port reached approximately 2.06 million b/d and via Omani ports totaled around 1.15 million b/d in the week of August 14-21. Overall vessel tracking data suggests around 4 million b/d departed from the Mideast Gulf region in the past week.
Recent data from Windward shows 16 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, with most using the northern, Iranian-controlled lane. Tanker traffic in the same period involved 12 vessels, also predominantly on the northern lane. Notably, two China-affiliated very large crude carriers have recently abandoned their transits through the strait. One outbound transit on the US-supported southern lane was tracked by Windward, involving the Ashley tanker, which is laden with fuel oil and is currently idling off Fujairah.