Key facts
- Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya warned that Russia could use Belarusian territory for new attacks on Ukraine.
- Tsikhanouskaya stated that Belarusian infrastructure is already being used to support Russian drone operations.
- Ukrainian officials reported on Sept. 14 that Russia is using Belarusian infrastructure to maintain stable signals for Shahed-type drones.
- Belarus held military exercises near its borders with Poland and Lithuania from Sept. 15 to 18.
- Belarusian companies are reportedly producing components and supplying petroleum products for the Russian military, and helping Moscow circumvent sanctions.
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has warned that Russia could use Belarusian territory to launch new attacks against Ukraine, describing it as a "real possibility." She told Ukrinform on Sept. 23 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko would be willing to provide territory, logistics, and infrastructure to support Russian military objectives.
Tsikhanouskaya indicated that Belarusian infrastructure is already being utilized for Russian drone operations, including logistics and equipment for directing drones. This aligns with reports from Ukrainian officials on Sept. 14, who stated that Russia is employing Belarusian infrastructure, such as LTE networks and repeater stations, to ensure stable signals for Shahed-type drones during attacks on Ukraine. She also noted the installation of repeaters along Belarus' borders with Ukraine and EU countries, which could facilitate future Russian attacks or provocations.
According to Tsikhanouskaya, Lukashenko has benefited economically from the war, with over 500 Belarusian companies reportedly producing components like optics and microchips for the Russian military, supplying petroleum products, and aiding Moscow in circumventing sanctions. She also pointed to Belarus' cooperation with Russian online retailer Wildberries, developing warehouses that have become targets of Ukrainian drone campaigns due to their alleged use in supplying the Russian military.
Tsikhanouskaya believes Lukashenko desires a Russian victory, as Moscow is his primary political and economic ally, and a weakened Russian President Vladimir Putin would mean less support for the Belarusian regime. Meanwhile, the Belarusian Defense Ministry stated on Sept. 15 that military exercises near its borders with Poland and Lithuania, held from Sept. 15 to 18, were defensive in nature and aimed at protecting the country's sovereignty. Additionally, Belarusian Railway Workers' Community reported on Aug. 24 that new railway infrastructure is being built in the southern Gomel Oblast, capable of receiving military trains.