Key facts
- Sweden's general election on Sunday could see the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) enter government for the first time.
- Opinion polls show a very tight race, with the center-left bloc holding a narrow lead.
- The current prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, has promised ministerial posts for the SD if his coalition wins.
- SD's manifesto includes pledges to cut immigration and revoke permanent resident permits.
- Legal experts warn that a far-right government could further undermine Sweden's reputation as a human rights champion.
- The Social Democrats, led by Magdalena Andersson, have also adopted more restrictive policies on crime and immigration.
Sweden's general election on Sunday is poised for an extremely close outcome, with the potential for the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) to enter government for the first time. Opinion polls indicate a narrow lead for the center-left opposition alliance, led by Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, who is the favorite to become prime minister. However, her bloc's advantage has significantly diminished in the final days of the campaign.
In 2022, current Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of the center-right Moderates broke a long-standing taboo by forming a deal with the SD, allowing his minority coalition to govern. This agreement granted the SD considerable influence over government policy, particularly on crime and immigration. Kristersson has now proposed offering ministerial posts to the SD should his party be returned to power.
The election follows similar trends in Germany, where the nativist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) topped key state elections, and in France, where Marine Le Pen leads polls for the presidential vote.
Experts have voiced concerns that a far-right government could further erode Sweden's international reputation as a champion of human rights. John Stauffer, legal director at Civil Rights Defenders, noted significant policy shifts on crime and immigration under the current government and anticipates a continued focus on reducing immigration and the number of people seeking protection in Sweden. He also suggested that individuals with migrant backgrounds might be encouraged to leave the country.
The SD's platform includes proposals for legislation against "anti-Swedish sentiment," revoking permanent residency, and further immigration cuts, with a slogan aiming to "make Sweden Sweden again." Despite recent policy changes, such as lowering the age of criminal responsibility, Sweden has historically been viewed as a proponent of human rights and the rules-based world order.
Stauffer indicated that the Social Democrats, in an effort to regain voter support, have also adopted more stringent stances on crime and immigration, suggesting that a left-wing victory might not lead to a rollback of current hardline policies but could halt further negative developments.
The performance of smaller parties could be decisive in the tight race. The Liberals, part of the governing coalition, and the Centre party on the left, could play crucial roles in coalition formation. The SD has already influenced mainstream political discourse on immigration, according to Bo Petersson, a political science professor at Malmö University, making it a test of the party's broader appeal.
Fredrik Furtenbach, a senior political correspondent for Sveriges Radio, suggested that if the rightwing parties win, the SD's likely acquisition of several ministerial posts would represent a significant breakthrough. Conversely, if the rightwing coalition loses, internal debates within center-right parties are expected regarding their engagement with the SD.
Key voter concerns include healthcare, law and order, immigration, and the economy. Election results are anticipated on Sunday night, though government formation talks could extend for weeks or months.