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Sweden election tightens as Liberals clear parliament threshold, poll shows

Created at 7 Sep · 8:26 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Sweden's ruling right-wing bloc has narrowed the gap with the centre-left opposition ahead of Sunday's general election, according to a Novus poll. The Liberal party rose to 4.3%, clearing the 4% threshold to enter parliament.

Key Numbers

4%parliamentary threshold
4.3%Liberal party support in poll
50.3%centre-left bloc support
47.9%government bloc support
0.2%gap reduction between blocs
16Liberal party seats potentially retained
2,888voters polled by Novus

Who's Involved

Novus
polling agency
Magdalena Andersson
leader of the Social Democrats
Ulf Kristersson
Prime Minister of Sweden
Liberals
junior coalition party
Sweden Democrats
anti-immigration support party
Sweden election tightens as Liberals clear parliament threshold, poll shows

↳ Why This Matters

The tightening election race and the Liberal party's potential return to parliament could significantly impact the outcome of Sweden's general election, potentially allowing the incumbent right-wing bloc to retain power.

Key facts

  • A Novus poll indicates Sweden's ruling right-wing bloc is closing the gap with the centre-left opposition ahead of the general election.
  • The Liberal party has risen to 4.3% in the latest poll, clearing the 4% threshold required to gain seats in parliament.
  • The poll shows 50.3% support for the four centre-left parties and 47.9% for the three-party government and its support party.
  • The gap between the blocs has narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous Novus poll.

STOCKHOLM, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Sweden's ruling right-wing bloc has further closed the gap with the centre-left opposition ahead of Sunday's general election, according to a new opinion poll by Novus. The poll indicates that the Liberal party has reached the 4% threshold needed to enter parliament for the first time in years.

Earlier surveys had suggested a near-certain victory for the opposition, led by Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson. However, the latest polls indicate that the government of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, in power since 2022, may still secure re-election.

The Novus poll, published by commercial broadcaster TV4, showed 50.3% support for the four centre-left parties, while the three-party government and its support party, the Sweden Democrats, garnered 47.9%.

The gap between the two blocs has narrowed by 0.2 percentage points since Novus' previous poll. The Liberal party, a junior coalition partner, rose to 4.3% from 3.3%, clearing the threshold to win seats and alleviating concerns that the party might lose its 16 seats and the coalition its majority.

Three weeks prior, a poll by a different agency showed the centre-left holding a 10-percentage-point lead, which political scientists at the time deemed a nearly insurmountable margin to overcome before election day. Novus surveyed 2,888 voters between September 1 and September 5.

Frequently asked questions

Clearing the 4% threshold means the Liberal party is likely to win seats in parliament, which is crucial for the ruling right-wing bloc to maintain its majority.

Three weeks prior, a different agency's poll showed the centre-left with a 10-percentage-point lead, considered a nearly insurmountable gap.

The Novus poll surveyed 2,888 voters between September 1 and September 5.

What Happens Next

01General election to be held on Sunday.

How It Developed

A Novus poll shows the ruling right-wing bloc has narrowed the gap with the centre-left opposition.
The Liberal party rose to 4.3% in the poll, clearing the 4% threshold to enter parliament.
The centre-left bloc has 50.3% support, while the government bloc and its support party have 47.9%.

Sources

T1
Sweden election race tightens as Liberals make parliament threshold, poll showsReuters

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