Key facts
- Sweden Democrats slipped from second to third-largest party in the general election.
- The Social Democrats secured a wafer-thin, three-seat majority for their bloc.
- The AfD in Germany achieved 44% of the vote in a regional election.
- Experts suggest the Swedish political establishment has normalized far-right nativism.
- Younger voters in Sweden showed a preference for explicitly left-wing parties.
Europe's political landscape is under scrutiny following Sweden's general election, where the far-right Sweden Democrats experienced a setback, slipping from the country's second-largest party to third. The centre-left Social Democrats, led by Magdalena Andersson, are positioned to return to power, having secured a narrow three-seat majority with their left bloc. This outcome contrasts sharply with a recent regional election in Germany, where the far-right AfD doubled its vote share to 44%, a result described by political scientist Cas Mudde as 'a black day for Europe'.
Experts like Mudde and Ann-Cathrine Jungar, a professor at Södertörn University, suggest that while the Sweden Democrats' electoral ranking may fluctuate, their influence persists. Jungar noted that the "political centre in Sweden could articulate a clear alternative to the far right," with Green and Left parties performing well among young voters, a trend observed across Europe. However, Mudde also cautioned that Sweden's political establishment has "fully normalised" the far-right party's nativist agenda, which has been adopted in milder forms by major parties across the political spectrum.
Martin Gelin, in an essay titled 'How Sweden lost its soul – and stopped being Sweden,' documented a shift towards a more "cruel and cold" environment for migrants, with xenophobic and ethno-nationalist ideas becoming embedded in the political mainstream. He highlighted that even Andersson's Social Democrats have adopted hardline stances on crime and immigration, mirroring their Danish counterparts. Jungar remains skeptical about a significant policy shift, stating that linking crime and immigration has become the "new normal" and that Social Democrats are unlikely to adopt more liberal policies.
In Germany, the AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt is seen as tapping into a legacy of grievance related to the economic impact of reunification, rather than voters necessarily caring about the party's specific policies. Political analysts warn that waiting for the AfD to fail is not a viable strategy for the German political center, emphasizing the need for a credible democratic alternative.