Key facts
- OPEC+ is likely to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October.
- Seven core OPEC+ members will meet Sunday to discuss policy.
- The group is completing the rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut agreed in 2023.
- Actual production has fallen below quotas due to conflict-related disruptions.
- OPEC+'s market influence has weakened due to supply route disruptions.
- The group is shifting focus to setting new production baselines for 2027.
OPEC+ is likely to maintain its current oil production policy for October when seven core members meet online Sunday, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The group is completing the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed upon in 2023. However, actual production has lagged behind higher quotas due to disruptions from ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, which have impacted Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz and Russian and Kazakh exports.
The Iran war, in particular, has weakened OPEC+'s ability to influence the market, as Gulf exports are constrained. Brent crude was trading near $94 per barrel amid renewed fighting and tanker attacks. Beyond current output, OPEC+ is shifting its focus to determining new production baselines and quotas for 2027, a process expected to involve difficult negotiations.
A review of production capacity for most OPEC+ members is being conducted by DeGolyer and MacNaughton, with findings expected by late September. Iraq has advocated for a higher quota to reflect increased capacity, while the UAE departed OPEC in May partly due to quota disagreements. Venezuela is also reportedly considering leaving the group.