Key facts
- OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil output policy for October.
- The group is completing the unwinding of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut agreed in 2023.
- Disruptions from conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have impacted actual oil output.
- The focus is shifting to determining new production baselines and quotas for 2027.
- Seven core OPEC+ members will attend Sunday's meeting.
OPEC+ is likely to maintain its current oil production policy for October during its upcoming Sunday meeting, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The group is in the process of completing the unwinding of a production cut agreed upon in 2023 and is shifting its focus to negotiating new output quotas for 2027.
The meeting involves seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. These countries have been gradually increasing their monthly production quotas throughout the year. However, actual output has not always kept pace with these increases due to disruptions in oil exports stemming from conflicts in Iran and Ukraine.
The group's influence on global oil prices has diminished compared to previous years, partly due to these ongoing geopolitical disruptions affecting key export routes like the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ still has a significant layer of production cuts in place for most of its 21 members, extending until the end of 2026.
Currently, a review of members' oil production capacity is underway, conducted by DeGolyer and MacNaughton for most members, with a report expected by the end of September. This review is crucial for setting new production baselines for 2027, a process that is anticipated to involve difficult negotiations. Some members, such as Iraq, are advocating for higher quotas to reflect their increased production capacity, while the United Arab Emirates departed OPEC earlier this year partly due to quota disagreements. Venezuela is also reportedly considering leaving OPEC.