Key facts
- OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil production quotas for October.
- The decision comes as the U.S.-Iran conflict disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reduced the impact of OPEC+ production changes on global oil prices.
- OPEC+ has nominally completed the reversal of output curbs introduced in 2023.
- The alliance is preparing to establish new production baselines for 2027.
OPEC+ is expected to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October, with key members inclined to leave crude output quotas steady at the group's upcoming video meeting. This decision comes as the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, including renewed military strikes in the Persian Gulf, has disrupted crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions have diminished the cartel's traditional ability to influence global oil prices and supply through coordinated adjustments.
While OPEC+ has nominally completed the reversal of a 1.65 million barrel-per-day supply cut introduced in 2023, actual production remains below targets due to the conflict and shipping constraints. Analysts note that the group is currently moving barrels on paper rather than in the physical market, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening being a key factor for future market dynamics. The alliance is also shifting its focus toward establishing new output quotas for 2027, a process expected to be more complex and politically sensitive, with negotiations over production baselines anticipated later this year.
Major OPEC+ nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are leading the discussions. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated no expectation of quota reductions, citing recovering demand. The group's next monthly meeting is scheduled for October 4, with a priority on auditing each member's production capacity to inform the 2027 baselines, a review expected by the end of September.