Russia's oil production dip is temporary, with output expected to recover as refineries resume operations after unscheduled maintenance, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. The country has faced disruptions from Ukrainian drone attacks.
The ongoing disruptions to Russian oil production and refinery operations have implications for global fuel supply and prices, particularly for middle distillates. Russia's ability to manage these impacts affects its export capacity and overall crude output outlook.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on Thursday that the recent dip in the country's oil production is a temporary issue. He anticipates that output will rebound as refineries come back online following unscheduled maintenance. Novak made these remarks at an economic forum in Vladivostok, asserting that fuel supply has improved this week.
The disruptions stem from intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, which have been ongoing since the spring. These attacks aim to cripple fuel supply for both the front lines and the domestic market. In response to the fuel crunch, Russia has implemented a ban on diesel exports, which is currently in effect until the end of September, further tightening global middle distillate markets.
However, the attacks have also impacted crude output and export capacities, affecting terminals in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea. Consultancy Rystad Energy has revised its forecast for Russian crude production, now expecting it to average 8.95 million barrels per day in 2026, before declining to approximately 8.6 million barrels per day in 2027. This represents a reduction of about 90,000 barrels per day from their previous outlook. Rystad Energy noted that the increasing effectiveness of drone attacks is now constraining Russia's upstream sector, as the country's export system struggles to consistently handle surplus volumes not processed by refineries.