Key facts
- Ukraine's drone strikes have significantly impacted Russia's oil refining capacity.
- Russia is now processing crude oil at the Kondensat refinery in Kazakhstan.
- The Kondensat refinery has historical ties to Russian oil company Tatneft.
- Experts deem the arrangement insufficient to resolve Russia's severe fuel shortages.
- Central Asian nations may be hesitant to supply Russia due to sanctions risk.
Ukraine's ongoing drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have forced Moscow to seek processing facilities abroad, with a deal struck with a small private refinery in Kazakhstan. The Kondensat refinery in western Kazakhstan will process Russian crude, with approximately 70 percent of the output to be sent back to Russia. This move comes as Russia grapples with severe fuel shortages, leading to export halts and rationing measures.
Experts, however, view this arrangement as a desperate measure that is unlikely to resolve the acute fuel deficit. John Roberts, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted that while any additional supply helps, particularly for military operations, the Kondensat refinery's limited capacity—producing about 0.3 percent of Russia's daily gasoline demand—means it cannot solve the problem.
The Kondensat refinery has historical ties to Russia's Tatneft, its fifth-largest oil company, through corporate links involving Osprey Investment and Aytemiz. This arrangement has been in place since 2024, with an agreement allowing the export of gasoline made from Russian oil back to Russia renewed for 2025. Following UK sanctions on Tatneft in 2025, its stake in Aytemiz was transferred to a Russian regional government-controlled entity, removing direct corporate links.
As Ukraine continues its refinery attacks, Russia is expected to pressure other Central Asian nations, such as Uzbekistan, for similar processing arrangements. However, Ukrainian energy analyst Hennadii Ryabtsev stated that Central Asia lacks the excess capacity to significantly impact Russia's situation, calling the supplies mere "drops in the ocean." Furthermore, Central Asian governments are likely to be wary of aiding Russia's war effort due to the risk of Western sanctions and potential impacts on inward investment.
Vladyslav Vlasiuk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's commissioner for sanctions policy, echoed these concerns, suggesting that few suppliers would be willing to provide petroleum products to Russia, understanding the military implications. He also pointed to existing cases of sanctions being imposed on entities aiding Russia.