Key facts
- A new tool, the Carbon Impacts Tracer, translates carbon emissions into estimated environmental and economic damage.
- The HVO mine in New South Wales could emit 809 million tonnes of carbon dioxide if approved.
- The tool estimates that the HVO mine's emissions could expose nearly half a million people to unprecedented heat.
- Emissions from the HVO mine could lead to the death of nearly 15 million coral colonies on the Great Barrier Reef per bleaching event.
- The tool estimates that the HVO mine's emissions will reduce crop production annually, equivalent to the minimum dietary needs of 276,129 people.
- The Carbon Impacts Tracer was developed by scientists at the Australian National University, the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, and the Lethal Humidity Global Council.
A new tool called the Carbon Impacts Tracer has been launched by scientists to directly link carbon emissions from fossil fuel projects to their environmental and economic consequences. The tool aims to provide a clearer understanding of the real-world impacts of greenhouse gas emissions, moving beyond abstract numbers to tangible effects.
The tool's developers, including Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from the Australian National University, state that even small numbers in global warming can lead to catastrophic impacts. The Carbon Impacts Tracer translates emissions into estimated effects such as increased global heating, loss of labour hours due to excess heat, glacier melt, coral death, and reduced crop production.
One of the primary applications highlighted is the potential HVO coal mine in New South Wales, which could emit approximately 809 million tonnes of carbon dioxide if approved. The tool estimates this would contribute to an additional 0.00036C of global heating, expose nearly half a million people to extreme heat, kill around 15 million coral colonies per bleaching event, and reduce crop production annually to a level equivalent to the minimum dietary needs of over 276,000 people.
The tool is based on established scientific metrics like Transient Climate Response to CO2 Emissions (TCRE), which indicates that every billion tonnes of CO2 causes about 0.45C of global heating. The results are presented as best estimates within a range of uncertainty, with links to the original scientific studies.
Maria Nawaz of the Australian Human Rights Institute sees the tool as transformative for climate litigation, enabling a direct link between corporate or government actions and climate harms, thereby refuting the 'drop in the ocean' defense. Climate lawyer Elaine Johnson noted that fossil fuel companies may resist this development as it clearly connects their products to severe consequences like heatwave deaths.