Key facts
- Labour is confident that Andy Burnham can sell his proposed social care reforms to the public.
- The reforms are expected to cost up to £18 billion a year.
- Potential funding mechanisms include tax rises, changes to the state pension's triple lock, or a 'death tax'.
- Previous attempts at social care reform by Theresa May and Gordon Brown failed.
- Labour strategists aim to avoid past mistakes by gradually introducing the idea to voters.
Labour insiders are expressing confidence in their party leader's ability to successfully introduce and gain public acceptance for ambitious social care reforms, despite the inherent political challenges. Andy Burnham's proposal for a new, multibillion-pound public service aims to address the long-standing issues within the current social care system, which is often described as a lottery for elderly people and their families.
Burnham's strategy, likened to 'pitch-rolling' by former Prime Minister David Cameron's team, involves gradually preparing the ground for the idea, allowing time for arguments to be made and opposition attacks to dissipate before the next general election. This approach seeks to avoid the pitfalls of previous reform attempts, such as Theresa May's 2017 proposal, which faced public backlash for potentially requiring individuals with over £100,000 in assets to sell their homes for care, and Gordon Brown's 2010 initiative, which failed to achieve consensus on funding.
Estimates suggest the new system could cost up to £18 billion annually. Potential funding mechanisms being discussed include tax rises, modifications to the state pension's triple lock guarantee, or a 'death tax'. Some economists and policy experts, like former cabinet secretary Gus O’Donnell, suggest a package deal that amends the triple lock alongside social care improvements could be revenue-neutral and appealing to older voters. Alex Clegg of the Resolution Foundation noted that while triple lock savings might not be immediate, they could be significant in the long term and easier to accept if paired with better social care.
Burnham is expected to elaborate on his vision during his upcoming conference speech. While the precise funding details are still under review, including a forthcoming report by Louise Casey, Labour MPs believe Burnham possesses the communication skills necessary to lead this significant policy initiative.