Key facts
- 53% of UK voters believe Labour has a realistic chance of winning the next election.
- Belief in Labour's chances has increased from 33% in May.
- Reform UK's perceived chance of winning has fallen to 47% from 65% four months ago.
- The cost of living crisis is the top priority for 59% of voters.
- 56% of voters believe the government is not doing enough to address the cost of living.
- Andy Burnham's personal approval rating stands at +16.
Andy Burnham has significantly altered the public's perception of British politics, with a majority of voters now believing his Labour Party has a strong chance of winning the next election, according to a new POLITICO Poll conducted by Public First. The poll, released at the Labour Conference in Liverpool, shows that 53% of voters think Labour has a realistic shot at retaining power, a substantial increase from 33% in May when Keir Starmer was prime minister.
The shift in perception suggests that Labour's decision to replace Starmer has so far paid off, with headline voting intention polls also showing Labour in the lead. Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, noted that the perception of being able to win is crucial, especially in constituencies where tactical voting could be decisive.
Conversely, the fortunes of Nigel Farage's Reform UK have reversed, with belief in their chances of winning dropping to 47% from 65% four months ago, following negative headlines. The Conservative Party is seen as even less likely to win, with more voters discounting them as contenders than believing they have a chance.
While the next general election is not due before 2029, some aides to Burnham have reportedly pushed for a vote as early as next spring, though the prime minister has ruled out an early election. The poll found that about half of respondents believe Burnham should call an election for legitimacy, while slightly over a third disagree. If an election were called, 37% expect Labour to win a close vote, and 21% expect them to lose.
The poll also revealed mixed public sentiment regarding Burnham's ability to address key voter concerns. The cost of living crisis remains the top priority for 59% of respondents, yet 56% believe the government is not doing enough to tackle it. More people now blame Labour for the state of the economy than the Conservatives, with 38% reporting their personal finances have worsened since Labour took office.
Skepticism surrounds Burnham's capacity to improve daily life, with only 20% expecting real improvements. Reform voters are particularly skeptical. The upcoming budget is seen as a critical test, with 44% expecting to be worse off afterward. Looking longer term, 34% anticipate personal financial improvement over the next five years, versus 31% expecting worsening circumstances. Burnham's personal approval rating is stable at +16.