Iran's regime, facing significant setbacks in its conflict with the U.S. and Israel, may increasingly turn to terrorism and asymmetric warfare as conventional military operations prove to be a losing strategy, according to former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton.
Bolton argued that damage to Iran's nuclear program, air defenses, and military-industrial complex, coupled with a deteriorating economy exacerbated by a U.S. naval blockade, has weakened Tehran's position. He noted that Iran's failure to disrupt Gulf Arab oil exports further undermines its leverage.
He pointed to two recent incidents as potential indicators of a shift in Iranian strategy: a thwarted attack on the Royal Air Force base at Fairford, England, which is critical to U.S. operations in the Middle East, and an attempted hijacking of FlyDubai 1073.
U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham stated there are "strong indications" of Iranian involvement in the Fairford incident, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu adding that his government had provided intelligence to Britain about potential Iranian threats beforehand. The co-pilot of FlyDubai 1073, Omani citizen Hamam al-Hammami, attempted to seize control of the aircraft, though there is no current evidence of Iranian involvement in this specific event. However, Bolton suggested that even if al-Hammami acted alone, the incident could inspire copycat attacks, including from Iran.
Bolton urged the U.S. and Israel, along with allies, to implement enhanced safety precautions against further terrorist attacks, citing past Iranian assassination attempts in the U.S. and the ongoing conflict as reasons for concern.
