Key facts
- Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 33 transits from Monday to Thursday, down from 50 the prior week.
- Six crude oil tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz this week.
- Shipowners are hesitant to enter the Strait of Hormuz due to security concerns, despite significant discounts on Iraqi crude.
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait increased to 26 vessels on Thursday from 19 the day before.
- Iran and Oman are reportedly nearing a deal for the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Houthi claims of missile strikes on shipping have escalated regional security tensions.
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined significantly this week, with data showing 33 vessels transiting from Monday to Thursday, down from 50 in the previous week. This decline follows a Houthi claim of a missile strike on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, contributing to heightened security concerns. Only six crude oil tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz this week, while 21 vessels have entered, primarily via the Iranian route. Despite steep discounts of nearly $30 a barrel on Iraqi crude offered by SOMO, shipowners remain wary of entering the waterway.
In contrast, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday saw 26 vessels, an increase from 19 the day before. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are reportedly nearing a deal for the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, a development that markets are closely watching for potential signs of progress in reopening the key waterway.
Analysts note that threats to shipping in the Gulf and Red Sea have escalated to their worst safety situation since the Iran war began. Hopes for U.S.-Iran talks and an Iran-Oman deal appear to be dwindling, with Iran signaling a more restrictive regime for vessel traffic, including proposals to ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait. Commodities strategists at ING warned that growing distrust between the U.S. and Iran could lead to a worsening situation.