Key facts
- Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. meets six demands.
- Demands include ending hostile behavior, compensation, sanctions relief, and asset release.
- The U.S. previously expected a deal with Iran and Oman to reopen the strait.
- Shipping data shows a decline in transits through Hormuz, with 33 vessels passing Monday-Thursday.
- Vice President JD Vance confirmed direct U.S.-Iran talks aimed at increasing oil and gas flows.
- Vance expressed skepticism about Iran's assurances regarding tolls.
Iran has effectively rejected expectations of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, laying out sweeping conditions that would require the United States to fundamentally change its policy toward Tehran. Mohammad Baqer Zolghadr, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated the strait would remain closed until Washington ends what Iran described as its hostile behavior. The six demands include an end to U.S. threats and military action, a permanent end to the war, withdrawal of U.S. naval and air forces from around Iran, compensation for war damages, sanctions relief, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
This statement indicates that the much-discussed U.S.-Iran draft agreement does not, at least from Tehran's perspective, amount to a deal to reopen Hormuz. Any agreement would ultimately require approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Shipping data points to continued disruption, with only 33 vessels transiting Hormuz from Monday through Thursday, down from 50 during the same period the previous week. Only six crude tankers have reportedly cleared the strait outbound so far this week.
The uncertainty has kept the energy market on edge. Iran has also been considering restrictions on U.S. and Israeli vessels, while previous proposals for transit fees have added another layer of uncertainty. The European Union has already accused Iran's IRGC Navy of enforcing a screening and toll system for vessels using the strait.
Washington, however, is presenting a considerably more optimistic picture. Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. expects oil and gas flows from the Gulf to eventually return to pre-war levels. He also stated Iran had told Washington it had no plans to impose tolls, although the U.S. does not fully trust Tehran's assurances.
This leaves the market facing two very different interpretations of the same negotiations. Washington is talking about restoring normal energy flows, while Tehran is demanding major political, military, and financial concessions before reopening Hormuz.