As the 2026 House election map takes shape, both Republican and Democratic strategists are identifying key races where they believe their underdog candidates have a strong chance of winning. Operatives from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have pointed to four under-the-radar contests that could signal a successful night for their respective parties.
The identification of these "sleeper" races by both major parties' campaign committees suggests they could be pivotal in determining control of the House of Representatives in 2026. Upsets in these contests could significantly impact the balance of power in Congress.
As the 2026 House election landscape continues to evolve, strategists from both major parties are highlighting specific races they believe could lead to unexpected outcomes. Operatives from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have identified four contests that they consider to be under-the-radar "sleeper" races where their underdog candidates could potentially pull off an upset.
Will Van Nuys, Deputy Executive Director of the DCCC, and Will Kiley, Communications Director of the NRCC, shared their perspectives on these key matchups. Kiley acknowledged that the fight will be challenging but expressed confidence in the GOP's standing, stating, "We’re not saying that this won’t be a tough fight to the end, but we know we feel very good about where we stand."
One of the highlighted races is Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS). Thompson, who has served since 1993, faces a primary challenge from Evan Turnage, an attorney and former counsel to Sen. Charles Schumer. On the Republican side, retired Army captain Ron Eller is expected to challenge the winner of the Thompson-Turnage primary.
Another race of interest is Connecticut's 5th Congressional District. While the state has trended Democratic in recent years, Republicans see an opportunity. In 2022, then-State Sen. George Logan lost to Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT) by less than one percentage point, and Logan ran again in 2024, though he lost by a slightly wider margin. Recent history suggests Republicans may have an outside chance in this district.
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