Key facts
- Flávio Bolsonaro, frontrunner in Brazil's presidential election, vowed to "re-democratise" the country.
- Opponents and historians accuse Bolsonaro of using democratic language to disguise an illiberal shift.
- Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, was jailed for 27 years for attempting a coup after the 2022 election.
- Flávio Bolsonaro's party secured the largest caucus in the senate with 28 of 81 seats.
- Flávio Bolsonaro met with El Salvador's security minister, Gustavo Villatoro, and praised the country's security policies.
Fears of authoritarian rule are growing in Brazil following presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro's vow to "re-democratise" the country, a phrase that has drawn accusations of preparing a coup. Bolsonaro, who beat incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the election, is set to face him in an October 25 run-off. His comments have alarmed historians and opponents, who see them as a precursor to illiberal changes, echoing the authoritarian past praised by his father, Jair Bolsonaro.
Jair Bolsonaro, a former soldier who served under Brazil's past military dictatorship, was jailed for 27 years for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election. He has a history of praising authoritarian leaders and was found guilty by the supreme court of trying to involve military chiefs in his bid to remain in power. The January 8, 2023 riots in Brasília, a far-right insurrection, are seen as inspired by the January 6 events in the US.
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign event in Goiânia was met with outrage. Leftwing congresswoman Talíria Petrone declared on X that his statement was "the announcement of a coup." Marcelo Freixo, a newly elected congressman from Lula's Workers' party, stated, "Brazil was re-democratised in 1988. The person who tried to undo this was his father, who was convicted of an attempted coup. What they want, once again, is a coup."
While Bolsonaro did not specify what "re-democratising" Brazil would entail, the country is currently ranked 28th on the V-Dem institute's liberal democracy index. Prominent journalist Míriam Leitão warned in O Globo newspaper of "the extreme and concrete danger of … another coup d’état attempt," noting that Flávio Bolsonaro "follows the same ideas as his father and has already said that an intervention in the institutions is necessary." Leitão suggested that an elected Flávio Bolsonaro would have more tools to enact his father's authoritarian project, potentially surpassing him.
Political scientist Miguel Lago noted that the significant far-right presence in Congress, with Bolsonaro's Liberal party securing the largest caucus in the senate, could allow for radical changes, including the impeachment of supreme court ministers. He also suggested that Jair Bolsonaro and his co-conspirators might be freed if Flávio wins, with the former president potentially becoming an influential minister. Lago described the situation as "almost like a coup d’état with the support of the majority of the population."
Flávio Bolsonaro has also met with El Salvador's security minister, Gustavo Villatoro, and praised the Central American country's hardline security policies. Villatoro reportedly stressed the importance of using control over congress to make "necessary legal changes."