Key facts
- President Donald Trump is visiting Texas on Wednesday for a rally.
- Trump is supporting Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton in a close race.
- Recent polls show Democrat James Talarico leading Paxton.
- Trump's approval rating stands at 32%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
- The rally is part of a broader Republican effort to mobilize supporters in competitive midterm races.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit San Antonio, Texas, on Wednesday for a rally, marking his third trip to the state in a month. The visit underscores the Republican Party's focus on a state that was expected to be a safe hold but is now facing unexpectedly tight midterm election battles.
Trump will speak alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who is in a close race against Democrat James Talarico. A loss for Paxton on November 3 could significantly hinder the Republican Party's efforts to maintain its slim Senate majority. Trump's repeated visits are part of a broader strategy to energize supporters in Republican-leaning states that have become competitive battlegrounds.
Recent polls indicate that Trump's approval ratings are at a record low of 32%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Democrats are leading Republicans by seven points among registered voters. Despite Trump winning Texas by 14 points in 2024, recent polls show Talarico ahead of Paxton. Republicans are also defending competitive House of Representatives seats in South Texas.
The stakes are personal for Trump, as a loss for Paxton, whom he endorsed in a party runoff over Senator John Cornyn, would be a significant setback. James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, stated that losing the Senate race would be "devastating for Republicans and devastating for Donald Trump."
Trump's political operation has also invested millions in competitive House races. Carlos De La Cruz, a Republican candidate in a newly redrawn district in San Antonio, is expected to speak at the rally. The relationship between Trump and Paxton has been described as awkward, with Paxton reportedly commenting on a decline in numbers after a Trump-centered convention, while Trump has publicly criticized Paxton's appearance and speaking style.
A Siena College poll released October 3 showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 45% among likely voters. Political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus noted that while rallying Trump's base is necessary for Paxton, it may not be sufficient, and Trump's visits can both inspire and repel voters.