Key facts
- Voters in two German states, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, are participating in elections.
- The anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party is seeking further gains.
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz's leadership is seen as potentially at risk depending on election outcomes.
- About 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in Berlin and nearly 1.3 million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
- The AfD scored its highest-ever regional result in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks prior.
- Merz's personal approval ratings have fallen to 10%.
Voters in two German states, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, are heading to the polls in elections that could significantly impact the political future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The results are being closely watched, particularly given the recent strong performance of the anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in Saxony-Anhalt.
Merz, who has been in power for 16 months, has resisted calls to resign and stated his intention to lead Germany through its current difficult period. However, his credibility has been affected by a failure to return Europe's largest economy to growth and by the AfD's rising popularity. Polling booths opened at 8 a.m. local time and will close at 6 p.m., with exit polls expected to reveal early trends.
In Berlin, the incumbent CDU is competing against the far-left Die Linke, which advocates for expropriating corporate landlords to address rising housing costs. Approximately 85% of Berlin households are renters, and advertised rents have nearly doubled since 2014. The AfD is polling in third or fourth place in the capital. The current CDU candidate for mayor, Stefan Evers, replaced Kai Wegner, who withdrew his re-election bid.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the situation appears more challenging for the CDU, with the AfD and Social Democrats in a close race. The CDU risks its first single-digit result in 75 years, which would be unprecedented in the postwar period and a significant setback for Merz. The AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt, where it narrowly missed an absolute majority, has put Merz under pressure, with speculation about his potential replacement before the next general election in 2029.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, estimates the risk of the CDU revolting against Merz has increased to approximately 35%. He noted that rising living costs and deindustrialization, exacerbated by competition from China, are impacting voters, despite some recent improvements in economic indicators. The AfD's focus on economic anxiety, crime fears, and opposition to support for Ukraine appears to be resonating with voters.