Key facts
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces a critical test of his leadership with regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.
- Polls indicate the CDU could suffer its worst defeat in post-WWII German history in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, potentially falling to 7% support.
- In Berlin, the CDU is narrowly trailing the far-left Die Linke, potentially losing its leadership role in the city government.
- A conservative official warned that a failure to win any seats in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would lead to "all hell breaks loose."
- Merz has sought to rally support by emphasizing Germany's role in maintaining European stability.
- CDU state premiers have publicly backed Merz, highlighting the need for a stable German government amid European political uncertainty.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing for a potential political fight for survival as results from two regional elections in Germany are expected on Sunday. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faces the risk of significant losses, particularly in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where polls suggest the party could achieve its worst-ever result in the post-World War II era, potentially falling to just 7% of the vote. This outcome could put the CDU at risk of failing to meet the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament, a scenario one conservative official described as leading to "all hell breaks loose."
In Berlin, the CDU is narrowly trailing the far-left Die Linke party with around 20% support, a decline of 8 percentage points from the last election, which could see the conservatives ousted from the city government. Merz has arranged a meeting with CDU leaders before the polls close on Sunday to gauge their support and present a plan for recovery. He has also canceled a speech at the United Nations General Assembly to remain in Berlin and address the domestic fallout.
To shore up support, Merz has emphasized the importance of a stable German government amid volatile European politics, a sentiment echoed in a public letter from all eight CDU state premiers backing the chancellor. Merz is also attempting to improve his approval ratings by signaling a willingness to address voter concerns, such as soaring fuel costs and restrictions on early retirement for those with 45 years of contributions. He has acknowledged a need to "connect more deeply with people" and adopt a less taskmaster-like tone.