Key facts
- Marine Le Pen would garner between 33% and 36% of first-round votes, according to a poll.
- Jean-Luc Melenchon is seen reaching a run-off in at least three of five polled scenarios.
- Edouard Philippe is the only center-right candidate to lead or tie Melenchon in any scenario.
A poll released on Monday indicates a significant lead for far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the upcoming 2027 French presidential election, with far-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon trailing in second place across most tested scenarios. The survey, conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive between September 8 and September 10, highlights the growing polarization of the French electorate as President Emmanuel Macron's second and final term nears its end.
Le Pen is projected to secure between 33% and 36% of the votes in the first round, depending on the specific scenario. Melenchon, representing the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, is anticipated to reach the run-off election in at least three of the five scenarios examined, and tied for second place in a fourth. However, Le Pen is expected to defeat him easily in a direct run-off.
Among center-right candidates, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is the only one shown to be competitive, leading Melenchon in one scenario and tying him in another. Other candidates from the center-right are projected to fall behind Melenchon in all tested scenarios.
The poll reflects a political landscape shaped by Macron's departure, which leaves a weakened political center and a struggling economy, creating an opening for hardline parties like LFI and Le Pen's National Rally. Melenchon has previously run for president in 2012, 2017, and 2022 without reaching the second round. Le Pen has also contested the same three elections, making it to the run-off in 2017 and 2022 but losing to Macron on both occasions.