Key facts
- European babies born in 2025 will face almost twice as much extreme fire weather as their great-grandparents under current policies.
- Global heating under current policies will expose a child born in Europe in 2025 to three more years of fire-conducive weather than someone born in 1950.
- The Mediterranean region will see the fastest rise in days with severe fire conditions.
- Under current policies (2.6C warming), children born today will experience 84% more extreme fire weather exposure than those born in 1950.
- Limiting warming to 1.5C would reduce extreme fire weather exposure for children born in 2025 by 1.3 years compared to current policies.
- Ursula von der Leyen announced plans for a European firefighting fleet.
European babies born in 2025 are projected to face nearly double the extreme fire weather conditions experienced by their great-grandparents if global climate action does not accelerate, according to a new study. Researchers combined demographic data with climate models to assess the lifetime exposure to fire-conducive weather.
Under current policies, which are expected to lead to 2.6C of global warming by the end of the century, children born today will experience 84% more extreme fire weather than those born in 1950. The study attributes 86% of this increase to climate change and 14% to people living longer. If warming is limited to the 1.5C target, children born in 2025 would face 1.3 fewer years of extreme fire weather compared to the current policy scenario.
The Mediterranean region is expected to see the most significant increase in severe fire weather days. Climate scientist Raúl Cordero highlighted the "inherently intergenerational injustice" of climate breakdown, noting that recent fire-weather conditions in central Europe were unprecedented for older generations. While aggressive fire suppression has historically reduced fires in southern Europe, a buildup of flammable vegetation, combined with hotter and drier conditions, has reversed this trend in recent years.
This summer, Europe experienced relentless heatwaves and widespread drought, fueling explosive wildfires across several countries. The severity of fire weather across the EU broke records, with the area burned ranking as the third-worst on record. In response, the EU's civil protection mechanism was activated nine times. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to create a European firefighting fleet, acknowledging the need for a larger and faster response.